How Many Jobs Has Trump Created? Trump Economy Is Creating Jobs

Today we speak about Job Creation by President Donald J. Trump: Number and Percent, and the main question is: "How Many Jobs Has Trump Created?"

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created? Jobs and Unemployment

2017: 2.2 million jobs created

2018 Ends with 312,000 Jobs Created in December; Strong Year for the Job Market

The employment rate is continuing the same upward trend it has been in for the past eight years. 2009 was a disaster for employment and, ten years later, we have still not reached the number of jobs we were at before The Great Recession.

Here’s a 10-year chart of job creation from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The part I’ve highlighted in yellow is job creation under Trump. As you can see, 2017 looks very much like 2016.

The latest jobs report shows continued employment growth while wages are lagging behind prior recoveries.

There are now 3.8 million jobs created during the Trump presidency, putting the median monthly job creation move or less in line with that of the Obama administration.

Over 2 million jobs added per year for the past 8 years

Below are the employment gains from President Bush’s last four years in office from just before the start of the Great Recession, through President Obama’s and so far through President Trump’s tenure.

“If you take a look at President Obama’s second term, he was adding 217,000 jobs,” says Betsey Stevenson, an economist at the University of Michigan who served as chief economist at the Labor Department under Barack Obama. “And since Trump assumed the presidency, he’s been adding 189,000 jobs per month. I’d say those are roughly around the same ballpark. But I don’t think Trump should be bragging that he’s somehow doing something that President Obama wasn’t doing.”

How Many Jobs Has Trump Created? Trump Economy Is Creating Jobs

EmploymentTotal nonfarm employment grew by more than 3.2 million during the president’s first 17 months in office, according to the most recent figures available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

That’s steady, solid growth to be sure, continuing an unbroken chain of monthly gains in total employment that started in October 2010.

But the average monthly gain under Trump is 189,000 jobs, which is nearly 13 percent below the monthly average of 217,000 during Obama’s second term.

Trump will have to pick up the pace if he is to fulfill his campaign boast that he will be “the greatest jobs president that God ever created.” At the current monthly rate, a total of just over 18 million jobs would be added over eight years. That’s better than the 11.6 million added under Obama and the 16.1 million added under Ronald Reagan, but well below the 22.9 million added when Bill Clinton was president, and the population was smaller.

Unemployment — The unemployment rate — which was well below the historical norm when Trump took office — has continued to fall even lower, to the lowest point in 18 years.

The rate was 4.8 percent when he was sworn in, and then fell to 3.8 percent in May — a low not seen since April 2000 — before ticking up to 4.0 percent most recently, in June.

The rate also is well below the historical norm of 5.6 percent, which is the median monthly rate for all the months since the start of 1948. The lowest unemployment rate ever recorded was in 1953, when the rate was 2.5 percent for a couple of months.

Job Openings — Another reason employment growth has slowed is a persistent shortage of workers. The number of unfilled job openings hit a new record of more than 6.8 million in April — the most in the more than 17 years the Bureau of Labor Statistics has been tracking them. In March, for the first time on record, the number of job openings exceeded the number of unemployed people looking for work, which was under 6.6 million.

In May, the number of job openings slipped back to 6.6 million — still the second highest on record and still just over the number of job-seekers. That’s a gain of nearly 1.2 million job openings — a rise of nearly 21.9 percent — since Trump took office.

Labor Force Participation — The labor force participation rate — which went down 2.8 percentage points during the Obama years — has remained essentially unchanged under Trump.

Republicans often criticized Obama for the decline even though it was due mostly to the post-World War II baby boomers reaching retirement age, and other demographic factors beyond the control of any president.

Since Trump took office the rate has fluctuated in a narrow range from 63.0 percent to 62.7 percent. (That’s the portion of the entire civilian population age 16 and older that is either employed or currently looking for work in the last four weeks.) It was 62.9 percent last month, exactly where it was the month Trump took office.

Manufacturing Jobs — Manufacturing jobs increased rapidly under Trump.

The number rose by 344,000 between Trump’s inauguration and June. That followed a net decrease of 192,000 under Obama.

The increase under Trump amounts to 2.8 percent, even faster than the 2.2 percent increase in overall employment.

However, the number of manufacturing jobs is still more than 1 million below where it was in December 2007, at the start of the Great Recession.

The jobs created under Trump are different than under Obama

In terms of job creation, if nothing else, Donald Trump seems quite similar to his predecessor.

In Barack Obama’s last 16 months in office, the number of jobs in the US increased by 2.4%. In the first 16 months of Trump’s administration, jobs rose by 2.1%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The strong labor market under Obama turned into a strong labor market under Trump as healthcare and education continued to boom.

When you look closer, a lot has changed for certain industries.

Under Trump, the situation for certain mining and manufacturing industries has greatly improved. Work in the category “Support activities for mining”—which includes jobs exploring mining sites—grew by almost 28% under Trump, compared to losses of about 23% in the last 16 months of Obama.

It is not clear how much Trump’s policies have led to the increase in manufacturing and for miners’ brighter prospects. Jobs in these industries are cyclical, and also grew at times under Obama. Yet it seems likely that in the short-term, Trump’s emphasis on deregulation has sparked some growth, though the long-term consequences for the environment and US economy could be quite bad.

While there is a clear theme to the jobs that have done well under Trump, the jobs that have done relatively poorly are more scattershot. Although still growing, the biggest slowdown was in jobs in warehousing and storage, which includes work at Amazon fulfillment centers. The onetime reality-TV star’s presidency also has not been a good time for work in the US TV, movie and music industries.

Unemployment rate is getting about as low as it can go

The unemployment rate hit a high of 10% in October 2009 around the depth of the Great Recession, and it declined seven consectutive years during Obama’s presidency. It has continued this downtrend trend and hit a low of 3.8% in May this year before inching up to 4% in June.

Job growth continues its five year trend

With 1.29 million jobs added in the first six months this year, the country is on pace to exceed 2016 and 2017 figures. It could be difficult to exceed 2015’s 2.71 million due to the challenges companies have finding people with the right skills. Additionally, the administration’s tightening immigration policy could put a damper on not just having enough people for organizations to hire, but also having the people with the right talents and expertise.

Manufacturing jobs are on the rebound

In the first half of this year, there have been 174,000 manufacturing jobs added. This is almost as many as any full year over the past decade and should easily surpass any added during Obama’s administration as the economy recovered from the Great Recession.

Coal jobs have halted their downward trend

At its recent peak in 2011, there were 89,400 people employed in the coal industry, declining to 49,700 in 2016. There are now over 162 million people employed in the civilian labor force and almost 3.5 million jobs have been created since 2016. Over the same 18-month time-frame, the coal industry has added 3,500 jobs for a total of 53,200, making up 0.033% of the U.S. total workforce.

3 Million People Have Found Jobs Since Trump Took Office

  1. The U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since 2000, dipping to 3.8 percent.
  2. African-American unemployment has fallen dramatically from 7.8 percent when Trump took office to 6.6 percent in April, and now to 5.9 percent.
  3. The number of people who could be working, but choose not to ticked down a 10th of a percentage point to 62.7%. This shows that the labor market is tightening.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a positive May jobs report, announcing the U.S. economy added 223,000 jobs and the unemployment rate reached its lowest level since 2000, dipping to 3.8 percent.

While this report shatters expert predictions by nearly 30,000 jobs and continues to show signs of a strong economy, it also makes clear that as people continue to leave the workforce, employers will need to step up their game in order to attract workers to fill open positions.

 

The strong jobs report shows that a record number of Americans are employed, nearly 3 million people have found a job since President Donald Trump took office, and over the past 12 months we have averaged 191,000 new jobs per month.

In addition to this, African-American unemployment has fallen dramatically from 7.8 percent when Trump took office to 6.6 percent in April, and now to 5.9 percent. This represents a record low.

In addition, Hispanics continue to experience near historic lows in unemployment, reaching 4.9 percent. The unemployment rate for women, now at 3.6 percent, is also at its lowest point in decades.

This brings the unemployment rate down 0.5 percent over the last year, unemployment down by 772,000, and long-term unemployment down by half a million.

The top gains in the report are in retail trade (+31,000 jobs), health care (+29,000 jobs), construction (+25,000 jobs), manufacturing (+18,000 jobs), and mining (+6,000 jobs).

A year and a half into his presidency, Trump continues to add jobs to key sectors he targeted during his campaign. Since he was elected, the U.S. has added 322,000 manufacturing jobs and has reversed the trend of losing mining jobs, adding 91,000 jobs since November of 2016.

On a more troubling note, the labor force participation rate (the number of people who could be working, but choose not to) ticked down a 10th of a percentage point to 62.7 percent. This shows that the labor market is tightening. In fact, the number of people counted not in the labor force reached a record high of nearly 96 million people.

With more and more staying out of the workforce, employers have been steadily raising employee pay. In May, average hourly earnings for all private-sector employees rose by 8 cents, totaling a 71-cent increase over the year. This is the largest 12-month increase since 2009.

What does this mean? To fill open jobs and continue growing the economy, employers need to make work more appealing. How? Pay more and offer more.

One example of this can be seen in Walmart’s recent decision to increase pay, add maternity and paternal leave benefits, and introduce a college tuition program. To attract and keep talent, companies like Walmart will have to offer better and better deals to workers.

Those better deals are made all the more feasible when the government implements pro-growth policies, like the recent tax reform and regulatory reductions. Businesses now have more money and flexibility to be creative in how they attract and maintain their workers.

To date, over 4 million Americans have received a pay raise and/or a bonus because of tax reform. This is not just employers being altruistic, it’s a market-driven response to a need to attract and maintain workers—enabled by the government taking less money away from businesses.

One thing is certain: When businesses have more, they can and will do more. While there are some challenging aspects to the latest jobs report, the overarching theme shows that pro-growth policies are giving employers the flexibility they need to innovate and solve problems.

References:

[1] Economy & Jobs | The White House https://www.whitehouse.gov/issues/economy-jobs/

[2] Current Employment Statistics Highlights - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/web/empsit/ceshighlights.pdf

[3] Employment Situation Summary - Bureau of Labor Statistics https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

[4] November 2017 Jobs Report - New From Senate RPC https://www.rpc.senate.gov/policy-papers/november-2017-jobs-report

[5] U.S. Department of Labor Data Shows That American Job Openings https://www.dol.gov/newsroom/releases/osec/osec20180605

[6] Jobs & Economy | U.S. Representative Phil Roe, M.D. https://roe.house.gov/issues/jobs-and-economy/